Monthly Outlook

Changeable and windy conditions should prevail for a time, punctuated by a possible warmer interlude later next week.

Further into June it should become generally more settled and warm as high pressure builds.

Trending cooler

Temperatures will be above average at first, with a cooler pattern into next week. Rather changeable and windy weather is to be expected, with spells of rain or showers which will be more prominent in northern and western areas of the UK in line with a stronger low pressure system between Iceland and Scotland.

During the early part of next week temperatures are expected to dip slightly below average, especially in Northern Ireland and Scotland.

There is currently broad agreement that a stronger low pressure signature near or to the north of the UK will bring a continuation of fairly changeable and windy weather, with temperatures around seasonal average. Nonetheless, there are signs of a gradual rise in temperatures from the middle of next week, particularly in southern and eastern areas of the country.

Uncertainty remains as we head towards next weekend. Some weather forecast models are still predicting cooler conditions for the second half of the coming week, consistent with the shift of the high pressure to the west of the UK and Ireland, which will cause a brisk west to north-westerly flow across the board.

By contrast a majority of weather forecast models depict a wet and brisk south-westerly flow with rising temperatures as next week progresses. Some model solutions even show very warm conditions in the south and south-east for next weekend.

Wetter for some

Some changes are expected in the week that follows with a general return to mostly drier and possible warmer than average conditions. This will be down to a stronger build of high-pressure across western continental Europe and lower pressure lingering near Iceland. As a result Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to have wetter and windier weather during this period. Furthermore, Scotland and Northern Ireland may see slightly cooler conditions as well which could temporarily extend further south and south-east, consistent with some alternative forecast solutions.

Possibly warmer

As we head in the second half of June there may be little change in the pattern with high pressure lingering near the UK or into parts of continental Europe, leading to largely dry and mostly summery weather conditions. Scattered showers or thunderstorms are still possible.

With a low pressure system lingering somewhere between Iceland and Greenland, or extending at times towards Scandinavia, northern and north-western parts of the UK will be more prone to spells of wetter, windier and slightly cooler conditions at times.

Given this there are currently few signs of a prolonged cooler spell.

Tuesday's update should provide clarity on whether warmer conditions will return later next week and how long the summery conditions are likely to last.