Monthly Outlook

Wet and windy weather should mostly prevail for the next couple of weeks.

In the short term, however, temperatures are likely to climb above average for a time towards the weekend, with temporary drier conditions.

A more general return to drier, warmer weather is possible deeper into June.

A warmer trend

Changeable conditions will remain on the cards at first, including a transient high pressure influence around mid-week. Temperatures could rise above average towards and for a time over the weekend, with somewhat more settled conditions still likely.

In fact, a high pressure ridge could spread further north, including towards parts of the UK and western continental Europe. More northern and north-western parts of the UK could see further changeable and windy conditions, in line with a stronger low pressure system between Iceland and Scotland.

Nevertheless, a majority of weather forecast solutions suggest a return to more widespread unsettled and windy conditions into Sunday. Temperatures are likely to remain at least slightly above average, but they should drop on Sunday and into next week.

Opposing solutions

Into the start of meteorological summer, long-range weather forecast models continue to show stronger diverging model solutions. According to some, much of the UK could eventually see a return to drier and calmer conditions, especially as next week progresses. The latter would correspond to a stronger high pressure signal over parts of the UK and/or into western continental Europe. Temperatures could remain or return well above average in that case.

By contrast, an increasing number of long-term weather forecasts show a stronger low pressure signature near the UK bringing a continuation of the rather unsettled and windy conditions, with temperatures lingering around the seasonal average. However, England, Wales and perhaps parts of Ireland might turn calmer and drier towards the end of next week.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty beyond mid-next week in particular. In view of this, even cooler-than-average conditions could develop by next weekend, which is consistent with the high pressure shifting west of Great Britain and Ireland, causing a brisk west to north-westerly flow across the board.

A drier and warmer outlook

Some changes are expected deeper into June. In this context, a general return to mostly drier and fairly warmer conditions seems still the more probable outcome. Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to see wetter and windier weather at times, however.

These conditions could persist beyond mid-month, i.e. the high-pressure could linger in the vicinity of the UK, leading to largely dry and prevailing summery weather conditions. Scattered showers or thunderstorms are still possible.

With a low pressure system lingering somewhere between Iceland and Greenland, northern and north-western parts of the United Kingdom continue to be prone to wetter, windier and slightly cooler conditions as well.

Friday's update could bring clarity about the more likely outcome in the first week of June and give us a glimpse further ahead.